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Prediction for CME (2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-01-15T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10053/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption to the SW starting around 21:45Z. CME is a partial halo, very faint.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-01-18T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-01-19T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2016 Jan 15 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The large filament situated at the southern solar hemisphere erupted at about 22:15 UT on January 14. The filament eruption was associated with coronal dimming and partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at about 23:36 UT, had angular width of about 280 degrees and speed of about 250 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth late on January 18 or in the morning of January 19.
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Lead Time: 56.27 hour(s)
Difference: -12.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-01-16T12:44Z

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